West Surges Ammunition Ahead of Ukraine's All-Or-Nothing Offensive (TheNewAtlas)

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 23, 2023:

- Russian forces continue encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and now Avdeevka, two major points along Ukraine's defense line in the Donbass;

- Ukraine is gearing up for its upcoming offensive, carrying out drone strikes on Crimea and reconnaissance by force along the line of contact in Zaporozhye;

- the stated goal of Ukraine according to Western reports is to cut the land-bridge between Crimea and the rest of Russia, though that would hardly isolate Crimea entirely;

- Ukraine would suffer immense losses, just as they did during the Kharkov /Kherson offensives last year, with the addition of many more Russian troops and extensive defensive works created months in advance;

- The US and EU are surging remaining stockpiles of artillery ammunition to Ukraine ahead of the offensive to sustain 2-4 months of intense fighting. Once depleted it will take years for the West to restore these stockpiles;

- Russian shell production appears to have exceeded Western output as early as 2014-2015 and has continuously increased since meaning Russia's ability to regenerate combat power exceeds the West's at this moment;

- Ukraine's upcoming offensive should not be underestimated nor the prospects of a breakthrough, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated a preference for withdrawing over being encircled or suffering heavy casualties as part of its attrition strategy;



[Posted at the SpookyWeather2 blog, March 24, 2023.]