Alexander opens the discussion pointing to Trump's initial ceasefire deal for Gaza, that now looks done.
Presently things have escalated, going from Gaza, to the Houthis, and to Iran. Three aircraft carriers are heading towards Iran with threats to strike their nuclear facilities. Alexander believes this is Trump playing for leverage before making a deal. But it could easily fail.
The Iranians, with Russian support, could call his bluff. However, will the Russians advise the Iranians to give Trump a political win, by taking over their enriched Uranium, so they can make a deal that then sees the US walk away from Ukraine? Trump did speak to Putin for a long time about the Middle East in that recent phone call. But what was said?
Apparently both the US and Russia agree that they don't want Iran threatening Israel with nuclear weapons. After recent missile strikes by Iran on Israel the Israelis will be paranoid about being wiped off the face of the planet. So this is what this is all about.
Without any nuclear weapons the Iranians will still have a security agreement where Russia guarantees to support them if attacked. They really do not need nukes to protect their country. However, they can build thousands of missiles, perhaps hundreds of thousands, and end up having the firepower to exert leverage in the region (whether directed at Israel or other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, or Turkey).
Note: As an individual, Trump likely meant what he said about not starting wars. His real focus is to repair the US economy.
[Posted at the SpookyWeather2 blog, March 22, 2025.]
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