Russia Donbass Advance Bakhmut Defence Crumbles, Avdeevka Cauldron Develops; US Alarmed Kiev Losses (Alexander Mercouris)

Alexander makes some good comments on the AUKUS submarine deal pointing out that it looks like the Australians have been set up to pay for an expansion of US submarine production where they will end up with second hand subs a decade later (rather than taking new ones). This has also antagonised the Chinese. The cost for the Australians to pay for these submarines (actually footing the bill for US and UK submarine production) looks astronomical - up to 380 billion dollars over 30 years. Previously the Australians had a deal with the French to build a number of advanced conventional boats that did not antagonise anyone. Presently there is growing resistance to the nuclear option in Australia so that the proposed vessels may never be delivered.

Will the Australians fall back on the advanced French-designed conventional boat option, or will they end up buying off-the-shelf (current production) boats from either Germany or France? If they go back to conventional boats the best option could be to buy something off an existing production line as a stop gap - to replace the current Collins Class - that would allow time to set up new production within Australia.

When it comes to equipment used in the conflict in Ukraine, whether MIG-29 fighters or Western tanks, whatever is sent is going to be destroyed by the Russians. The best option is for the Ukrainians to sue for peace to avoid further loss of life. This is unlikely to happen until the Ukrainian Army is fully broken. 

Best comment on You Tube:

disndat1000
TIME STAMPS
- Introduction - piracy 00:00
- Battlefield 01:39
--- Bakhmut seems to deteriorate 02:20
--- Wagner pushing Center and West 03:54
--- Chasiv Yar pincer developing? 06:48
--- Slaviangrad commentary: Wagner aiming for high ground 08:52
- NYT: Ukraine 'burns through' ammo - West unable to replenish - implications 21:50
- Conflicting advice to Ukraine re. counter offensive 30:01
--- Avdiivka 36:24
--- Krasnahorivka likely captured / New York in danger
--- Marinka 41:05
- MIG jets have been delivered for a long time already 44:30
- Xi confirmed in Moscow Monday & Tuesday 52:38
- Australian submarines craziness 54:05

[Posted at the SpookyWeather2 blog, March 19, 2023.]