Bakhmut Operationally Encircled, Russia Advance Zaporozhye; West Talks Tank Deliveries Ramstein (Alexander Mercouris)

The Russians seem to have fire control over the last approach to Bakhmut. One would expect the Ukrainians to now retreat, although losses in men and materiel don't seem to factor in their tactical decision making.

Also, the Western tanks sent to the battlefield will be problematic. If the upgraded T-64s and T-72 were turned into mince meat then Leopard 2 A4s and A5s will also be chewed up. It's not so much the equipment but the inability of the Ukraine Army to employ effective tactics against the Russians with inadequately trained troops - where they are facing off against massive amounts of artillery and drones.

One crucial point about the fighting is that there are a number of factors that give the Russians a distinct advantage. Even if the Ukrainians get a lot of the equipment they want, like artillery and tanks, without adequate drone surveillance they will face Russian artillery and tanks that DO have drone support. This allows the Russians to pick off any attacking forces. The Ukrainians have some of this, but not enough. 

The well organised Russians have a huge advantage and it will take a LOT more than a patchwork of deliveries to balance things out.  

[Posted at the SpookyWeather2 blog, January 22, 2023.]