Russia Inflicting Heavy Losses on Ukraine Reportedly Captured Kodema; Economic Crisis Deepens Europe (Alexander Mercouris)

Russia continues to pound Ukraine, while the Russian economy is not really suffering much at all. Their tax revenues are apparently increasing. This does not happen in a recession.

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Stan SPb
My observations as an American ex-pat living in Russia is that the mood on the ground is upbeat and confidence and if anything the people are interested in a harder stance regarding cooperation with the collective west and to not provide any goods and services to Europe, and to cut off any trade. Western brands that the US forced out, were missed for a few weeks primarily by pro western young people who grew up on US social media and were sure their own country was inferior to anything from the US, suddenly turn 180 around the time of the videos of Russian soldiers being tortured and mutilated, then shot to bleed to death shocked them that the west hated Russians so much as to cheer those crimes. Banning all Russians and Russian culture sealed the deal of the realignment of the young people with their parents and leaders.

I see no down turn in commercial activity other than the vacant mall shops of western brands. Their inventoris are still in place, and signs saying they are temporarily closed now are reminders of how untrustworthy western companies are. They might as well strip their stores because their young Russian customers will never buy their brands again.

Given that even the young people are not willing to compromise with the west Russia is in no mood to ignore or forget how they have been portrayed and targetted.

If any change happens in Russian policy it will likely be further seperation from the west and focusing in the fast growing number of countries that want to trade from Asia, Central Asia, Africa, South America etc. If there is negotiations, it is going to be a hard take it or leave it list of demands from Russia. Dropping bans on Russian flights and travel would be among the opening demands, as would be removal of all western arms on the border of Russia, for some distance, maybe 1000km. They may demand the bordering countries drop their NATO memberships. If trade ever returned it would be limited to non-NATO countries. Trade and normal relations is not compatible with a hostile organization which has the sole goal of destroying Russia.

Any negotionated agreements with Ukraine will include proof of removal of all traces of the Nazi policies such as banning Russian language, culture and targetting Russian speakers. The people of Russia are not willing to cede any of the capture lands in the east and on the Black Sea.

These demands would not be acceptable to Washington so it is likely no agreement or treaty would result. Many of the countries that Europe will depend on for replacing Russian commodities are aligning with Russia and China now so Europe might be far worse off after hostility ends than now. If they need commodities their only options will be other EU countries, the US, Canada, UK, Australia and Japan as suppliers.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather2 blog, August 30, 2022.]